The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of the Russell Westbrook Trade
Why the Lakers’ title window, for better or worse, is now firmly centered on mercurial star (and L.A. native) Russell Westbrook
THE LAKERS ARE in a familiar position. Just two seasons ago, when the team traded for Anthony Davis, they were in the exact same position: multiple superstars with almost every roster spot available — this created a blank canvas for GM Rob Pelinka.
Back then, L.A. tried going all-in by signing Kawhi Leonard, the reigning Finals MVP. At the time, the players they had resigned were marginal rotation players at best: Jared Dudley and Troy Daniels. When Leonard infamously drew out his free agency decision for multiple days, the Lakers were left to sign/re-sign role players like Danny Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Rajon Rondo.
This summer, no player of Leonard’s magnitude was available to L.A., but multiple stars were. As of today, with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook, the team has consolidated most of its cap space to having three stars.
L.A. was this close to trading for Buddy Hield, a sharp-shooting guard from the Sacramento Kings. It took Westbrook welcoming a trade from Washington, his third trade in as many years,(and presumably James and Davis pushing Rob Pelinka to trade for Westbrook) for L.A. to push most of their assets towards the mercurial guard.
Russell Westbrook is arguably the most polarizing NBA star of the past decade. He is as indefatigable and relentless as he is stubborn and enigmatic. He is a former MVP who, even as he ages, continues to create statistical anomalies that the NBA has never seen, but he is also an embattled, aging veteran whose tendencies can alienate his superstar teammates. One could argue the 32-year old is a unique talent whose strengths are under-appreciated; another could argue that he is a highly flawed player whose weaknesses are magnified in the postseason: neither opinion is wrong.
In all likelihood, Westbrook will be a Laker for the remainder of his contract, irregardless of how the team performs in the 2022 postseason — his contract, stature, and desire to stay in his hometown almost guarantee that reality. How, then, can L.A. maximize their championship window around Russell Westbrook? That is the question that will determine whether this experiment ends in glory or disaster.
The Good
The first benefit of the Westbrook acquisition requires some reading between the lines. Prior to the trade, various reports stated that team officials worried about two things: the Lakers’ title window being shorter than expected and James’ durability.
Westbrook, invariably, will make LeBron’s workload easier. If James wants someone to bring the ball up the court, Westbrook can do it. If he wants to rest on offense, Westbrook can run pick and roll. After the 2021 Playoffs, I have a better idea of what LeBron does to conserve his energy: he spent most of Games 2 and 3 shooting a high volume of threes, making passes from the perimeter, and letting players like Dennis Schroder and Anthony Davis attack the basket. LeBron would sometimes go out of his way to let Schroder soak up possessions with isolations and pick and rolls; Westbrook will assuredly be more effective than Schroder in those situations, and he will create “drive and kick” opportunities for three point shooters.
The other aspect of L.A.’s new big three is this: Russell Westbrook has the potential to form a tantalizing partnership with Anthony Davis.
Westbrook, for most of his career, has had symbiotic relationships with his centers, whether it be Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams, or even Daniel Gafford. He rewards centers who can run in transition (Gafford) and big men who are talented in the pick and roll (Ibaka and Adams).
The only center Westbrook has struggled with is Clint Capela in Houston, where the Rockets’ numbers on offense and defense declined with the pairing on the court (hence why they traded for Robert Covington), but more on that later.
Davis, without a doubt, is the best center that Westbrook has ever played with, and he provides a variety of complementary skills. It’s not hard to see the Westbrook-Davis pairing creating havoc against second units when LeBron James rests — the pairing could be a souped-up version of Rajon Rondo’s partnership with Davis in L.A. and New Orleans.
The other benefit from the Westbrook trade that is immediately apparent has to do with roster-building philosophies.
As Pete Zayas of Laker Film Room likes to say, the Lakers, under LeBron and A.D., have adopted a philosophy of being “bigger, faster, and stronger.” They are “bigger” than other teams because of LeBron and Davis’ ability to punish teams in the paint. They are “faster” than other teams because James and Davis are faster than most power forwards and centers in the league. Lastly, they are “stronger” than other teams because, at most positions, they have an excess of athleticism and size relative to most NBA teams.
Think about the 2019–2020 championship team. Between Alex Caruso, Avery Bradley, Danny Green, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (who effectively was the Lakers point guard defensively), they had strength, speed, and size in the backcourt. They also infamously played James and Davis with strong, mobile rim protectors like JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, which only reinforced their size and strength advantage.
This past season, however, I thought the Lakers got away from that identity. Their starting backcourt (Schroder and Caldwell-Pope) was more productive offensively than Green and Bradley, but they gave up some of their physicality on defense, which ultimately hurt them in Round 1.
Westbrook, of course, is the epitome of being “bigger, faster, and stronger” at the point guard position. He offers them a new level of athleticism in the backcourt. He also is a one man fast break: the Rockets, when switching from Chris Paul to Westbrook, went from one of the slowest teams in the league to one of its fastest.
L.A. was so good in the NBA Bubble because their elite defense created many opportunities for the team to play in transition or semi-transition, where they were extremely effective. While they’ve lost some perimeter defense this summer, they will have a player in Westbrook who, irregardless of his team’s defense, creates fast break opportunities just by being opportunistic.
The Bad
If you believe in “fit” over star power when constructing a roster, then the Russell Westbrook trade could be a nightmare.
It’s clear that his alternative, Buddy Hield, made much more sense in terms of pure basketball fit. My opinion on Hield is mixed — he is an elite, high-volume shooter, but he also has the classic poor tendencies of a player who has spent his career on losing teams. However, it is almost indisputable that Hield’s presence as a shooter would make life easier for anyone on the Lakers roster, whether that be LeBron, Anthony Davis, or even a (hypothetically) resigned Dennis Schroder.
Westbrook’s complementary skills have already been discussed: his play in transition, his passing out of the pick and roll, and his kick-out passes to three point shooters. However, some of his other skills/tendencies, like shooting pull-up midrange jumpers, taking off-the-dribble threes, or posting up in isolation, don’t really add value to the Lakers from an offensive efficiency standpoint.
From a cynical point of view, Westbrook’s strengths overlap too much with LeBron James, and his weaknesses could hinder the team’s offensive efficiency.
There is also a dilemma that Westbrook presents come playoff time.
It is a reality that the Houston Rockets had to grapple with in their one season with Harden and Westbrook: when Westbrook plays off the ball, Houston struggles because defenses can play aggressive help defense on James Harden, but when Westbrook plays on the ball, where he is more effective individually, then Houston just took the ball out of the hands of the best isolation scorer in recent NBA history.
What happens when Westbrook takes the floor with LeBron James? Is the same situation going to occur? LeBron, especially in the playoffs, is an all-time great offensive player because he generates shots at the rim, uncontested threes, and fast break opportunities. With Westbrook in the fold, that formula isn’t so clear: LeBron will have to contend with an extra level of help defense when he has the ball and Westbrook is playing off the ball.
The Lakers will play some small-ball (“small” being a relative term in this case, because Anthony Davis would be playing at center) but Westbrook would have to make players like Rudy Gobert pay for defending him. We saw Terance Mann score 39 points when the Jazz’s defense dared him to be a scorer — is it that bold to claim that Westbrook wouldn’t be able to consistently take advantage of Gobert’s perimeter defense?
While Westbrook’s lack of three point shooting is probably over-discussed because of his poor shooting percentage (he showed in Houston that he was willing to eschew shooting threes altogether), I would feel more comfortable with his fit on the Lakers if he was an active off-ball cutter. It is clear he is not that.
The last aspect of Westbrook’s acquisition is his defense. He is typically a decent on-ball defender, but a very poor off-ball defender. Can Frank Vogel construct a scheme that plays to Westbrook’s strengths? I’d argue no: Vogel’s defensive schemes require maximum effort from on-ball defenders (such as Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), help defenders (such as LeBron James and Anthony Davis) and rim protectors (such as Dwight Howard and Marc Gasol).
The only time I’d argue Westbrook had a clear positive value on defense was his second season with Paul George, where he, George, and Dennis Schroder were enabled to be uber-agressive when guarding on-ball and playing the passing lanes. But that team schematically had a solid backline defense (Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel) to mitigate for their aggressive gambling on defense and ultimately flamed out in the first round, so they shouldn’t be a template for Vogel to follow.
The Ugly
What happens if the Russell Westbrook experiment doesn’t work?
I’ve already outlined Westbrook’s basketball fit with the team, but the question that truly looms over the Lakers is what happens if the team underperforms with their new star guard.
They frankly don’t have many exit options. Westbrook, for as good as he is on the court, is at best a neutral asset. L.A. might even be lucky to get a package as good as the one they just sent out (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, and a first-round pick) if they look to trade Westbrook after next season.
If the team waits for his contract to expire, then they will be heading into 2023 with a 38-year old LeBron James and no immediate way to replace Westbrook if he seeks to leave the team. Additionally, would it even be worth it to sign Westbrook to a large contract longer than 1–2 years after the 2022–2023 season? My intuition says no.
No team that Westbrook has played on (Oklahoma City, Houston, or Washington) has wanted to see out the rest of his super-max contract for various reasons. Oklahoma City was entering a rebuild, Houston’s culture made Westbrook (and subsequently James Harden) unhappy, and Washington needed cap space to retool around Bradley Beal (presumably).
If all goes to plan, Westbrook will extend LeBron James’ prime (third prime?) by easing his load. However, Westbrook himself could suffer from the effects of age, injuries, and mileage, and if L.A. re-signs him past the 2022–2023 season, that could be a death-knell to their last chance to build a title team around LeBron and Anthony Davis.
Free Agency?
As of the writing of this article (the first day of free agency), the Lakers have signed four players: Trevor Ariza, Dwight Howard, Wayne Ellington, and Kent Bazemore.
Howard probably can’t take the floor with Westbrook. He, like Clint Capela, plays in the “dunker’s spot,” and that actively takes away Westbrook’s driving lanes. That was the reason that Westbrook-Capela lineups were a net negative in Houston in terms of offensive efficiency. Also, Philadelphia’s lineups with notable non-shooter Ben Simmons and Howard were horrid offensively; Westbrook-Howard lineups will face the same predicament.
Ellington, Ariza, and Bazemore are decent signings. Ariza and Bazemore could, in theory, benefit from Westbrook setting them up for three-point attempts. Ellington is unique because he is a mobile shooter who can deployed in off-ball actions; if his three-point shooting even approaches 40%, he should have success with Westbrook.
I’m not sure if L.A. will be able to create a team that perfectly suits Westbrook on offense with just veteran minimum contracts and a taxpayer mid-level exception. Names that the team are rumored to be interested in, such as Avery Bradley, Markieff Morris, Wes Matthews, Carmelo Anthony, and Rudy Gay won’t move the needle enough in terms of floor spacing and versatility to make up for Westbrook’s shooting woes.
That signals to me that Westbrook must adjust. It probably won’t be enough for Westbrook to continue to playing the same style he has for over a decade. It’s time for Westbrook to start cutting to the basket off the ball, playing better off-ball defense, and cleaning up his shot selection.
L.A. could win the title next season just based on James and Davis’ individual greatness alone, but if the team wants to build a sustainable contending roster, the onus is on Anthony Davis to play like an MVP and Russell Westbrook to finally adjust his game.
Only time will tell if Westbrook, a player who has stayed true to his game despite many criticisms over his career, will finally change his ways.
