Why the Lakers Need Talen-Horton Tucker to Fulfill His Potential
Despite being just 20 years old, the construction of the Lakers roster necessitates that THT develops his game soon
EVER SINCE TALEN-HORTON TUCKER took the NBA by storm in the 2020–2021 Preseason, his potential has been of particular interest to Lakers fans and media members alike.
From his raw physical tools (6’4" with an incredible 7’1" wingspan) to his talent as a finisher, it’s not hard to see why Lakers players and coaches have been effusive in their praise of the young guard out of Iowa State.
After a strong stint in the NBA G-League and the NBA Bubble, which included a successful stint in the 2020 NBA Playoffs against the small-ball Houston Rockets, many were hopeful for a breakout campaign from “THT.”
The second-year guard impressed many in his second season, as his raw talent forced Frank Vogel to play him over other veterans at times, including Wes Matthews and Markieff Morris. Furthermore, with LeBron James (ankle) and Dennis Schroder (COVID-19 protocols) missing significant time during the season, the team often turned to the 20–year old guard as a playmaker.
He responded by averaging over 16.0/4.7/5.0 per 36 minutes, while showing immense talent despite his young age. LeBron James, who has notably favored stripping his team of young talent in favor of veteran players throughout the years, has shown tremendous support for the 20–year old. His superstar teammate, Anthony Davis has as well. But they aren’t the only stars impressed with the athletic, 6'4" guard.
In fact, in the second game of the preseason — the game in which Horton-Tucker had 33 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals — Kawhi Leonard asked the Lakers’ Wes Matthews how old the young guard was.
According to SB Nation, Matthews recalled Leonard asking him “Hey Wesley, Talen is 19?” Matthews, a candid veteran player, admitted that he didn’t know who Horton-Tucker was until joining the team, and after asking his teammate, he learned the young guard had just turned 20 years old — younger than many rookies entering the league that season.
Add Kawhi Leonard to a list of those impressed with THT’s potential, a list that includes at least two future first-ballot Hall of Famers. Not a bad start to a career for a 20-year old.
ANY CONVERSATION REGARDING HORTON-TUCKER’S star potential begins with his finishing ability. He has an innate ability to finish layups at every angle that cannot be taught. Getting to the rim was his best attribute of this past season, as his downhill, attacking style is developed beyond his years.
Not many players can spin, side-step, Euro-step, contort, and twist into layups with as much ease as THT can. Those who have the most lofty expectations for his NBA career surely see his maximized potential as an elite finisher who can relentlessly attack the basket any angle and make plays for others.
Examining the weaknesses in his downhill attacks requires more attention, however.
Firstly, I’d argue THT is only elite at one component of finishing: the horizontal component — that is, he has mastered how to get to the rim moving side-to-side. His skills and athleticism shine most brightly when he can finish moving in a horizontal direction, as he leverages his frame, ball-handling, and athleticism well to find paths to basket. In fact, his finishing with his right hand (on either side of the basket) has become so adept that I’d argue it’s okay that he is an extremely right-hand dominant finisher.
However, when considering the vertical component of finishing, such as having to finish over a defender, Horton-Tucker’s weaknesses show. Against more disciplined drop-coverage centers, he lacks a go-to move. The problem with this, of course, is that when centers stay in the paint and/or do not try to move laterally against him, THT’s effectiveness as a finisher declines dramatically.
He doesn’t have a floater — the typical way that guards finish over taller defenders who are stationed in the paint — and he isn’t necessarily tall enough to consistently finish layups where he elevates over his defender, unlike, say, his teammate LeBron James. He also isn’t a great playmaker yet: when he attacks the rim, he can have “tunnel vision” (which is to be expected of a young player who consistently attempts extremely difficult finishes at the basket).
It takes more than one offseason to develop a floater; however, if Horton-Tucker’s improvement in his three-point shooting this season is real and quantifiable, then his effectiveness against drop coverage centers will improve (if for no other reason then having more space to operate).
During this next season, Vogel’s staff (including famed player development coach Phil Handy) should focus on developing Horton-Tucker’s game in two distinct areas: catch-and-shoot three-pointers and setting up three-point shooters off of drives.
Horton-Tucker’s shooting wasn’t good in his second season, and there is one distinct reason why. He clearly appears to be more comfortable shooting off-the-dribble (just look at his shooting during the 2020 NBA Preseason), but, on this Lakers team, 73% of his three-pointers were assisted, meaning they were mostly catch-and-shoot threes.
His comfort shooting off-the-dribble is a symptom of being a player who has had the ball in his hands throughout his amateur basketball career; it explains why he looked uncomfortable in off-ball situations outside of being a screener or cutter in 2020–2021.
Meanwhile, Horton-Tucker is still too reticent as a passer. This was excusable in his first season as a regular rotation player given his inexperience and the poor shooting of L.A.’s role players. However, on the 2021–2022 Lakers team, with players like Malik Monk, Wayne Ellington, Kendrick Nunn, and Carmelo Anthony, Horton-Tucker’s playmaking as a passer will be arguably as important as his finishing.
Going forward, this needs to change: THT needs to be able to play off of LeBron James and Russell Westbrook, and he needs to be a better playmaker if non-LeBron and non-Westbrook lineups are going to succeed this season.
WHEN THE LAKERS OPTED TO not resign Alex Caruso, they indirectly chose Horton-Tucker over Caruso, a fan-favorite and defensive stalwart. In fact, with the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, and Danny Green from the past two seasons, the onus is on THT to become a strong perimeter defender.
Lakers coach Frank Vogel, notably a defensive-minded coach, acknowledged this reality. “[Talen Horton-Tucker] has the ability … the last few years as a young player he’s gotten a little bit better as we’ve gone, but he’s one of those guys, that looking at KCP and Alex not being here, can you step up and fill into that role of guarding some of the other best players?”
Rob Pelinka echoed this sentiment, claiming that Horton-Tucker would have to become a “dominant” defender.
From that perspective, the Lakers investment in Horton-Tucker (he is the fourth-highest paid player on the team) is not just about his future — it’s about what he can provide to the team right now.
Out of the guards the Lakers signed this summer, only Kent Bazemore and Horton-Tucker can approximate the defensive impact left behind by Caldwell-Pope, Caruso, and even Dennis Schroder. Horton-Tucker has already shown some signs as a good on-ball defender; however, he is far from being the type of disciplined, steady off-ball defender that L.A. needs.
A great example of this effect came when the Nets faced the shorthanded Lakers last season. When tasked with guarding Joe Harris (arguably the league’s premier off-ball three-point specialist), Horton-Tucker often got out of position. The result was 21 points on 6/7 three-pointers for Harris and a -14 plus/minus for THT.
In the postseason, that is unacceptable. In a game where individual possessions can dictate the outcome of an entire series, a championship contender like the Lakers cannot necessarily afford to have inexperience cost them defensive possessions.
The question then, becomes, whether or not regular season experience will help THT get to an adequate level of off-ball awareness. Horton-Tucker has all of the physical tools and veterans leadership needed to accelerate his growth, but he still needs to convert his potential into production.
“I think Talen has got to establish himself as a dominant defensive player. I think that is going to be the expectation on him. You guys know Frank Vogel prides himself on that end. He builds everything with his defense. There’s nothing Talen doesn’t have to keep him from being an elite player. We all know about his publicized incredible wingspan. Broad shoulders, quickness, athleticism. If he makes a choice to dominate you on the defensive end with his body and his length and his athleticism, that could be a nightmare for opponents. So I think it starts there.
— Rob Pelinka, Lakers General Manager
